Nigeria’s democracy is gravely imperilled if we are to believe a motley collection of politicians who gathered at a conference in Abuja a couple of days ago, to discuss governance and the state of the nation.
The dramatis personae included former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who headed the failed People’s Democratic Party (PDP) ticket at the 2023 general elections. Rotimi Amaechi who fought unsuccessfully to be the All Progressives Congress (APC) flag bearer had a few choice words to offer. Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, was not to be outdone in his dark prognosis about where we are headed under the current administration.
It is important to state early that all these gentlemen have axes to grind with the Bola Tinubu administration and whatever may be coming from them as criticism definitely had a tinge of bitterness. Atiku, for instance, fought his presidential loss to the Supreme Court and even at the final bus stop refused to accept defeat. His interactions with the government since then have been reduced to hurling of insults.
On Monday, he painted the picture of opposition parties under siege and made the very grave claim that many were being paid N50 million monthly by the government to compromise them. He didn’t offer any evidence to back his claims.
Amaechi has never hidden his contempt for the current incumbent, believing he would have made a better president. To make a bad situation worse , the APC in his home state of Rivers has been split right down the middle with his former appointee and ally turned foe, Tony Okocha, now recognised as leader by the national headquarters. This is a branch of the ruling party where the former Transport Minister once reigned as lord and master. He clearly feels like he’s been targeted for political extermination and has in return indicated his hostility towards the new powers in town through his body language and comments.
At the Abuja conference he once again encouraged Nigerians to grab power by fighting for it, seeing as no one was going to hand it to them on a platter. Three months ago, in an ABN TV interview, he wondered why Nigerians were not more vocal in questioning the tough economic conditions in the country. He said he expected the youths to storm the streets in protest against the high cost of living.
He said: “I’m angry with the citizens. I have said it several times. You can see a group of people stealing your money, impoverishing you, you cannot buy fuel and anything.
The people should be angry. There should be protests. Not even protests against anybody but against the politicians that ‘we won’t vote’.
“That is what people should be saying. The rate of hunger now… if people like us cannot afford diesel, you can imagine what is happening to those who do not have children like us.”
The interesting thing about Amaechi is that despite living in internal exile in APC he has refused to quit the party. It is clear, however, that his body may remain for strategic reasons, his spirit has long departed.
It is the same with former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, who in the push to the APC convention emerged as one of the key Northern backers of Tinubu. Indeed, there was the much-publicised bromance between the twosome which culminated with the then candidate insisting on him joining the federal government to be formed.
As a sign of his contribution to the success of the party, he was rewarded politically with Tinubu backing the emergence of his candidate, Tajudeen Abbas, as Speaker of the House of Representatives – much to the anger of some of the president’s North Central allies in the House.
The icing on the cake was supposed to be a seat in the cabinet until things went awry. Much mystery shrouds what went wrong to torpedo the surefire ministerial appointment. But from that moment on, the onetime ally turned into a pesky foe, stirring the waters from time to time with snarky comments against the government and ruling party. When he’s not launching the attacks directly, his surrogate and onetime APC National Working Council (NWC) member, Salihu Lukman, is doing the honours.
Two days ago El-Rufai didn’t disappoint. From accusing the administration of acting like military dictators, to insinuating that there was a deliberate scheme to hobble all opposition parties, to deriding party delegates as illiterates and those they threw up in leadership positions as cunning, he was firing on all cylinders – not caring who was cut down in the hail of verbal fire.
Not even the spokespersons of the leading opposition parties could have done a better job. Still, he insists he remains an APC member. But everything about him paints the picture of someone who would rather be elsewhere.
While no one would suggest that democracy is perfect in today’s Nigeria, it is an exaggeration to say that it is in danger of extinction. Recent state elections have shown a marked improvement on past ones. Institutions like the National Assembly are functioning properly. Military leaders have reiterated over and again their subordination to civilian and constitutional authority.
The government at the centre isn’t using federal might to oppress states whose leaders it has political differences with. Rather, it has been willing to allow the judiciary resolve these differences. Clear examples are the ongoing political disputes in Rivers and Plateau States. The press remains relatively free and vocal. Social media is awash with critical comments and the government has resisted the temptation to inhibit that space.
So, rather than our system of government being on the brink of collapse, it appears to like the major protagonists at the Abuja conference were mostly singing dirges over their increasingly endangered political careers. Atiku admitted as much by warning his audience that none of them could wrest power from the incumbent on their own. The worry for him is that while this sounds like a reasonable proposition his would-be confederates don’t appear too enamoured.
One of Nigeria’s worst kept secrets is the ongoing soul searching by the opposition on how best to win power at the next polls.
Speaking at the Abuja conference, Atiku argued: “Opposition parties must realise that it is extremely difficult to dislodge a governing party, however unpopular it may be and however fed up the people may be with it.
“Coalition-building and outright mergers are critical for building the capacity of the opposition to achieve that goal. Our own history and examples from other countries prove that.”
The foregoing reference to our recent history has to do with the formation of the APC which against all odds uprooted the entrenched PDP administration of President Goodluck Jonathan. That experiment succeed largely because there was conviction on the part of major players that it was the only way to go.
Those who are hoping to replicate the success of that experiment are already falling at the very first hurdle – agreement on common purpose. The leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, former governor of Kano State, has distanced himself from any proposed mergers and fusion, accusing those behind the move of hypocrisy.
At same event where Atiku spoke, former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, warned he would not endorse any coalition if the motive is restricted to mere power grabbing. He stressed: “For me, what is important is about the country. We must talk about the future of Nigeria. We abandoned the country and all we talk about now is power grabbing.
“I am not interested in any coalition for the purpose of taking power. It is about discussing Nigeria, how we care about securing Nigeria, about the common people and their education. That is the most important thing in Nigeria for now.”
In saying this he makes a fundamental error of thinking that a political party is anything other than devoted to getting power. That’s why many still refer to the APC as special purpose vehicle (SPV) for overthrowing the PDP. You can talk about how to integrate the issues that matters to you into a common platform, but in the end everything boils down to grabbing power.
Sometimes, I am confused as to whether Obi wants to run for political office or sainthood. His rhetoric half the time makes power sound like a dirty word. He wants to be in governance but a few days ago was making those in government look like a constellation of demons.
He declared that there were more ‘yahoo boys’ in government than outside. If that was his convoluted way of saying there’s deep rooted corruption in our public service he wasn’t saying anything new. That comment could only have been made to attract more social media likes. What would been significant is if he shared with us a bit about what he intends to about this army of fraudsters if he ever got into power.
Whilst still languishing in the British opposition wilderness Tony Blair once warned his Labour Party colleagues that no matter how noble their policies were, they wouldn’t be able do anything about them until they found a way to get into office. Up to that point a succession of Labour leaders had foundered in their bid to topple the Conservatives largely because of the perception of the party as being too leftist.
So, Blair did everything he could to pull his party to a more centrist position; including rebranding it as New Labour. He even ensured that a provision in the party’s constitution that committed it to nationalism of key industries – the so-called Clause 4 – was amended.
The moral in the Blair anecdote is that a party cannot do any good until it finds its way to get elected. Those who want to make Nigeria great again, or who would have us believe a better country is possible, must first pass the critical test of rallying as unit that’s electable. Otherwise, history will be repeating itself as replication of the 2023 election results.
